Key Messages for #Hurricane #Agatha

Advisory 7: 10:00 AM CDT Sun May 29, 2022

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall.
2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, Hurricane with tropical storm conditions...Key Messages for #Hurricane #Agatha

Advisory 7: 10:00 AM CDT Sun May 29, 2022

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall.
2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, Hurricane with tropical storm conditions beginning Surd,"' Got
there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday.
3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

For more information go to hurricanes.gov Show more

Key Messages for #TropicalStorm #Henri

Advisory 19: 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 20, 2021

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
...Key Messages for #TropicalStorm #Henri

Advisory 19: 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 20, 2021

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.

3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Show more

Key Messages for #Hurricane #Grace

Advisory 29: 10:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 20, 2021

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern...Key Messages for #Hurricane #Grace

Advisory 29: 10:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 20, 2021

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo.

2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides.

For more information go to hurricanes.gov Show more

#Hurricane #Teddy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 with the...#Hurricane #Teddy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 with the increasing organization.

The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight 37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt.
After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range, Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the forecast period, and so does the official forecast.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH Show more

Key Messages for #Hurricane #Sally Advisory 21: 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 16, 2020

1.
Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama.
In addition, widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast.
Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely...Key Messages for #Hurricane #Sally Advisory 21: 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 16, 2020

1.
Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama.
In addition, widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast.
Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions Alabama into central Georgia.
Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, across western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina.
Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding in southeast Virginia.

2.
Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay and southern portions of Mobile Bay.

3.
Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Show more

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on #Hurricane #Elida, located a few hundred hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located around 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure...For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on #Hurricane #Elida, located a few hundred hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located around 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system is expected to form within this area in a day or
two, and it will likely become a tropical depression late this week.
The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this system well south or southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or
over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and
a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven Show more

Key Messages for #Hurricane #Isaias Advisory 13: 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 31, 2020 

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haw, Turks a. Caicos, a. the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night and Me eastem Carolinas by early...Key Messages for #Hurricane #Isaias Advisory 13: 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 31, 2020 

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haw, Turks a. Caicos, a. the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night and Me eastem Carolinas by early next week, potentially resulting In isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding Is possible In the Carolinas early next week. 

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous Moan surge are expected in poff ions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains In effect While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required later today if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning late tonight, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially In low-lying and poorly drained areas. Show more